Predicting Dynamic Behavior Using Physical System Models with Algebraic Loops

Pieter J. Mosterman
Institute for Robotics and System Dynamics
DLR Oberpfaffenhofen

Eric-Jan Manders
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Vanderbilt University

Gautam Biswas
Knowledge Systems Lab
Stanford University

Abstract

Our system for monitoring and diagnosis of abrupt faults in complex dynamic systems, TRANSCEND, relies on system models to predict dynamic behavior in response to abrupt faults. The use of qualitative predictions of this transient behavior mitigates complexity issues and convergence problems that exist in numerical diagnosis approaches. After a fault is detected, future behavior for all possible causes is predicted and captured in the form of a signature. Progressive monitoring uses these signatures to validate hypothesized causes and prune the set of candidates. In this framework, it is important to model the actual system at a level of detail that relates to the measurement bandwidth. Too much detail results in fast behaviors that are modeled as continuous transients but that appear as discontinuous changes in the measured signals. In many cases, abstracting these small parameter values away may result in algebraic dependencies between variables, i.e., variables affect one another instantaneously without integrating, state, behavior. Because of the compensating effect of physical system behavior, a straightforward deviation propagation results in predictions that are unknown in a qualitative sense. This paper describes an algorithm that recognizes such dependencies and propagates compensating effects without introducing unnecessary conflicts. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated by diagnosing a punctured hose in the cooling system of a combustion engine.

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